The Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address.
BritCham Member Company, Shell has published its latest energy-system scenario, called Sky, which illustrates a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
As Sky builds on earlier work, it seems to be the most optimistic scenario in terms of climate outcomes. The Sky scenario is set to be a technologically, industrially, and economically possible route forward, consistent with limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre-industrial levels. It reveals the potential for an energy system to emerge that brings modern energy to all in the world, without delivering a climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to.
But while encouraging news, success towards this aim is not guaranteed. The Sky scenario relies on a complex combination of mutually reinforcing actions by society, markets and governments. It recognises that the necessary changes will unfold at different paces in different places, and ultimately transform all sectors of economic activity.
The changes are economy-wide, sector-specific, and amount to re-wiring the global economy in just 50 years.
Scenarios are not policy proposals – they do not argue for what should be done, nor forecasts – what will be done. They are not predictions, nor Shell business plans and investors should not rely on them to make decisions. Rather, they can help reveal useful insights for the present and provide flexible guidance around which actions and opportunities can form.
Explore how the future might look like through Shell's latest energy scenario, Sky www.shell.com/skyscenario
Chief Political Analyst at Shell International
Director of Steward Redqueen, Singapore
Managing Director of The Energy Institute
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